The Reason Gas Is Cheaper In The Winter

"MojoMotors.com" (MojoMotors)
11/24/2014 at 10:14 • Filed to: Gas, gas price, fuel cost, winter gas, mojo motors

Much of the country has been enjoying low gas prices lately, !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! There are several factors contributing to this year's dip, but gas prices are typically lower during the winter. If you ask your know-it-all uncle, he will probably tell you that gas prices drop when it gets cold because people are driving less, thus decreasing the demand for gasoline. To a certain extent, he's right. People do most of their road trips during the spring and summer months. But that's not the real reason gas is cheaper in the winter.

The Real Reason

The reason for the price change is that winter gasoline and summer gasoline are produced using a different formula of additives. The practice of using different gasoline grades for the seasons began in 1995 with the Reformulated Gasoline Program, or RFG as the EPA calls it (their acronym, not ours). Without getting too scientific, the summer heat brings increased levels of smog and ozone, so summer-grade gasoline is formulated to produce fewer emissions. The formula for summer-grade gasoline costs more to produce so it costs more at the pump.

The seasonal price change is not the same across the country. As we alluded to, a lot of factors play into the price you pay to feed your four-wheeled monster. In general, gas tends to be cheaper in areas that are close to oil refineries or other petroleum infrastructure. Proximity means lower transportation costs, but it also means that the local governments are incentivized to keep the gas companies happy. That's why you'll find the lowest state gas taxes in Alaska and New Jersey. State gas taxes can vary as much as 40 cents per gallon. If you want to see where your state fits in, !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!!

The Transition

The change in fuel grade happens twice a year. The transition to summer-grade gasoline happens in the spring from April to June, and the transition back to winter-grade happens in September. Although the exact timing of the transition may differ based on the climate of the location. There are actually 20 different blends of gasoline sold in the United States to satisfy the regulations of each location. According to the EPA, the program has been significant in reducing air pollution, helping millions breath easier each year.

Overall, the Reformulated Gasoline Program has been cost-effective. However, the transition means that gasoline production facilities have to shut down for a time. This causes a disruption in the supply which pushes the price up. Oil refineries are already operating at maximum or near-maximum capacity, so every hour of downtime hurts the consumer.

The Effect On Your Car

Let's say that you have a son or daughter that goes to college several hours away from home. They have a car to get around when they're in town but they don't take it with them to college. They fill up the tank (unlikely, but play along with us) in January before they leave for the Spring semester, and they come back for the summer and drive the car. Will running a car in the summer with winter-grade fuel have a negative effect? Probably not as much as !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! , but your car will most likely be less fuel efficient and generally run worse.

Winter-grade gasoline contains higher levels of butane (which is less-expensive, contributing to the lower price) which lowers the Reid Vapor Pressure, or RVP. This means that winter-grade gasoline builds up pressure more easily in the tank and evaporates, producing ozone (which is bad). Basically, if you know it'll be a different season by the next time you drive the car, don't fill up the tank. Finally your son or daughter has a valid reason for only putting $10 in the tank at a time.

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DISCUSSION (100)

Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 10:23

There are a few other issues that cause fluctuation in the price. The big one right now is that there is a price war going on between OPEC and the American producers because America is getting slowly getting more and more independent when it comes to oil. OPEC is trying to run the Americans out of business because they believe that they can be profitable at a lower price. At which point they would jack the prices back up. Some speculators say oil could go as low as $70 a barrel.

TL;DR: OPEC dont want competition.

Rico > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis
11/24/2014 at 11:16

I've also heard some murmurs about the Middle East keeping price per barrel low due to our involvement in slowing ISIS down, how true that is I don't know.

Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis > Rico
11/24/2014 at 12:04

ISIS's issue is that (almost) nobody will buy oil from them. I think Turkey is one of the few.

GT Stig > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 12:21

Another very large reason is that in the winter the temperatures are much lower. The effect this has is that producers can make the gas with a lower evaporation point or higher volatility than in the summer. To get to this lower evaporation point requires less and cheaper additives which in turn means cheaper gas.

MojoMotors.com > GT Stig
11/24/2014 at 12:35

GT Stig, you're right but I don't think you read the article before commenting. That's the reason we are talking about! Your explanation might be better though.

MojoMotors.com > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis
11/24/2014 at 12:40

Great point, Dwhite. At $70 a barrel, we'll see some epic lows. First person to share a pic of a price under $2.00 gets some free Mojo gear!

Rico > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis
11/24/2014 at 12:53

Didn't know they were even selling oil. I knew they had taken over some areas that had refineries. What I had read was something along the lines of since America was helping stop the onslaught they were trying to scratch our back.

GT Stig > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 13:25

Maybe, but I don't think the volatility of the fuel and the emissions requirements are mutually inclusive. That was the only reason I mentioned it.

Snidely Whiplash > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 13:27

Mojo,

Thanks for trying. I'm a petroleum engineer. Too much ignorance and too little time...

kiwi_matt > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 13:28

I'm going to frame a picture of a sign when prices reach $.99/litre. Only $.06 left to go!!!

MojoMotors.com > Snidely Whiplash
11/24/2014 at 13:28

Snidely, thanks for thanking us for trying ;)

Faslanetech > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 13:43

Still sucky when these companies are posting all time high profit records and still outrageous pricing on fuel.

DeLos_ > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 13:44

I feel like you glossed over how the seasons change the amount of damage emissions do. How about a reason in lieu of a real explanation. Why wouldn't we want less emissions all year??

thebigbossyboss > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis
11/24/2014 at 13:48

that's only sort of right. Saudi's main reason for putting the squeeze on prices is to hurt Iran to the point where Iran has to stop propping up bashar assad in Syria.

thebigbossyboss > Snidely Whiplash
11/24/2014 at 13:49

Congratulations on all your success.

I think the main reason oil prices are going lower is because saudi's are increasing supply to put the squeeze on Iran. what do you think?

thebigbossyboss > Rico
11/24/2014 at 13:51

I think mostly it's trying to squeeze Iran financially so that they stop propping up bashar assad in Syria. However the contingency that you mentioned could be an upside also.

EthanW > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 13:54

I'm at $2.10 in Dallas. Soooo close.

MojoMotors.com > EthanW
11/24/2014 at 13:55

Wow, that's the lowest we've heard.

MojoMotors.com > DeLos_
11/24/2014 at 13:59

You're right, we did gloss over the environmental implications here. This Mojo employee would certainly want less emissions.

justagigilo85 > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 14:09

Kinja'd!!!

NJ Turnpike?

Malforus > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis
11/24/2014 at 14:13

Well its arguably the Saudis because OPEC has not met since they turned the taps on full. Which is likely intentional so they don't run into the obvious complaining by avoiding meeting.

Russia is also bleeding worse than the US with regards to oil prices, and its notable that Russia's actions are not looked upon fondly by the Saudi's currently.

phat-o > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 14:14

The real reason for lower prices .... there's a sheikh that is about to drown in all the gold he's swimming in and he needs a bit of breathing room.

HammerheadFistpunch > GT Stig
11/24/2014 at 14:16

This is exactly right, the RVP isn't an emissions function its a function of being able to run a carbureted engine in the winter vs summer. More vapor is needed in the winter to ensure proper atomiszation and less in the summer to avoid vapor lock.

HammerheadFistpunch > Snidely Whiplash
11/24/2014 at 14:18

You could...maybe try a little? I recognize there is much to be desired in the article based on what I know of the subject, but pointing out that its wrong without an explanation of where or how is...poor.

AV Nerd > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 14:28

Re: gas tax in New Jersey - so true; I didn't have a car when I lived in NYC, but I knew a few people that would try to find a reason to cross over to NJ then the tank was low, be it shopping or going to a party they otherwise wouldn't. Never made much sense to me because the tolls and traffic would surely offset any savings from gas if you didn't already have to be there.

That said, whenever I had to drive for work through NJ, I was always encouraged to top off the tank while over there. I didn't realize there was such a huge disparity between NY and NJ on that tax.

MojoMotors.com > AV Nerd
11/24/2014 at 14:34

Yes, the disparity is HUGE! You're definitely not alone when it comes to topping off before crossing the river to NYC.

Biggus Dickus (RevsBro) > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis
11/24/2014 at 14:44

We need to be careful though. Oil prices going too low can lead to a deflationary economy which is basically a death spiral.

Hart88 > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 14:48

Kind of a trade-off, as my fuel economy drops with the winter gas.

Tina Corbett > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 14:53

Here in Columbus Turkey Hill stores...it's down to $2.51 a gallon. Using my Kroger points, I can pay only $1.51 a gallon. But, alas...the bus doesn't let me fill it up. :-(

Toufiq > GT Stig
11/24/2014 at 14:53

Thats a TL;DR version from someone who didnt read! Thats awesome. You the man.

MojoMotors.com > Tina Corbett
11/24/2014 at 14:54

Sounds like we could all use a few Kroger points.

Gogogadgetanything > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 14:55

I had thought it would be similar reason why my winter rate electric bill is less expensive than my summer rate electric bill.

StevenG > Hart88
11/24/2014 at 14:59

Everyone's does. That is caused by the higher butane content.

mcbenz > AV Nerd
11/24/2014 at 15:03

Its BS and crazy.

NoVa Matt > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:04

This is a funny article. The author starts of by acknowledging an understand and belief in the concept of supply and demand. "He will probably tell you that gas prices drop when it gets cold because people are driving less, thus decreasing the demand for gasoline. To a certain extent, he's right." Then, in the next paragraph, the author completely rejects it "The formula for summer-grade gasoline costs more to produce so it costs more at the pump." Manufacturing costs do not dictate price. Price is dictated by two things: 1. Supply 2. Demand

To Brake Is To Admit Defeat > EthanW
11/24/2014 at 15:05

Wow, that's low! Here in East Tennessee I'm paying $3.29 for 93 octane, ethanol-free.

JustReboot > Tina Corbett
11/24/2014 at 15:05

They have a similar deal here in NJ w/ Stop and Shop > Shell - up to $2 off per gallon / one fill-up max then the count resets. I have never seen the discount go above $1 a gallon off, however that brought my last purchase down to 1.61 a gallon :) Yep you're damn sure I waited till I was almost empty...

Gizmo44 > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis
11/24/2014 at 15:08

Just to clarify, OPEC is lowering their prices to compete with the lower prices of American producers?

How would OPEC then raising their prices help them if the prices of the American producers would remain the same? Or are they pricing themselves so low that the American producers wont be able to compete?

TheCraigy > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis
11/24/2014 at 15:08

Yeah the article is a little misleading... we're not at five year low gas prices because of winter blend. Plus winterblend is no factor at all in southern states where there is effectively no winterblend. Demand does markedly drop in winter and the biggest factor in price outside of supply is demand.

Steven > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:11

$2.57 this morning in Midland, Tx. Smack dab in the middle of oil country. I'm born and raised in the industry, have over 8 years working in it. It has always seemed we've been high on gas prices here. I don't understand it.

Ninety-9 > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:13

Another reason (not sure how much it affects the formula), In the summer, car engines run warmer, take in warmer air, cool the radiators using warmer air. If you know what detonation is, you know why we have several grades (octane ratings) of fuel. Cars that are more susceptible to detonation (high compression ratios or boosted) run higher octane fuels. Heat also causes detonation, and warmer weather vs. cooler weather, your car simply runs better when the air is cooler. During summer months, in order to prevent detonation from the heat, the gasoline formula also increases the octane rating.

Ente Süßsauer > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:15

I don't really care what the difference is. All I know is that I see a 20% drop in MPG (from 19.5 to 17.5) when winter comes around because of the combination of the winter mix, the alternator having to work a wee bit harder, and slightly lower tire pressure to help in the snow.

KillerBee > justagigilo85
11/24/2014 at 15:16

No. That's a two-lane access road for maintenance vehicles to get around the plant.

E-con > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:18

Could you cite some numbers?

Did you perform some sort of analysis of significance, plotting cost of gas vs miles driven and additive prices to see whether one has a greater impact than the other?

How much more significant is the impact of additives to make it "real" vs demand?

How much do the additives cost, on average, nation wide, in terms of refinery costs?

How much butane is added?

Sorry, but the article at best proposes an interesting hypothesis to account for winter-summer price difference, but doesn't do much to flesh out the actual claim of the real impact.

Jeff Tripp > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:18

Reformulated Gasoline Program, or RFG if you prefer acronyms

RFG=Reformulated Fasoline Grogram?

MojoMotors.com > NoVa Matt
11/24/2014 at 15:19

Alfred Marshall would be proud!

Kinja'd!!!

Rico > HammerheadFistpunch
11/24/2014 at 15:19

Kinja'd!!!

MojoMotors.com > Jeff Tripp
11/24/2014 at 15:20

Had to double check but that's the acronym given to the program by the EPA. Don't ask us why...

http://www.epa.gov/OMS/fuels/gaso…

CrymeLord > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:25

If changing from Winter to Summer and back again causes a cease in production and the summer gas lowers smog then the obvious question is why they just don't have Summer gas all year round. Prices would be higher overall, but you wouldn't have the spike before the switch happens and you'd end up with less smog all around.

Does not compute.

MojoMotors.com > E-con
11/24/2014 at 15:26

You make some good points. We didn't go in depth on this one, we just thought we'd share a little known and interesting fact about fuel additives. Might be worth a deep dive though, thanks for the suggestions.

CrymeLord > Snidely Whiplash
11/24/2014 at 15:26

Perhaps you could descend from your high horse and educate.

MojoMotors.com > CrymeLord
11/24/2014 at 15:28

We're down with less smog.

MojoMotors.com > Ninety-9
11/24/2014 at 15:29

Thanks for the explanation, Ninety-9.

BigBlock440 > StevenG
11/24/2014 at 15:30

Also lower temperatures. I think that's a bigger factor, at least in my experience. I get 2 mpg less when the temperature drops. The odd warm few days, my mileage mostly goes back up (not all the way to summer mileage though), than right back down when it gets cold again.

Ash78, voting early and often > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:35

The problem with gas prices is there are too many factors at any one time, and as long as we have massive NYMEX speculators and a huge international cartel running it all, nobody can make sense of it because it's never so stable that only a couple factors make much difference on their own.

StevenG > BigBlock440
11/24/2014 at 15:36

Yeah, lower temps don't help either. Like you said though the composition of the gasoline means you never get back to summer mpgs.

special_k_side > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:37

Kinja'd!!!

Shoulda specified litres or gallons. :)

Party_in_the_USA > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis
11/24/2014 at 15:40

thanks Obama

Party_in_the_USA > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:41

with or without supermarket frequent buyer plan discounts ?

The Stig's Rustbelt Cousin > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:43

I was unaware of the increased evaporation rate of winter gas, which helps explain why my fuel mileage drops with the temperature. I knew there was more ethanol in winter gas (which doesn't help mileage either), but the fuel evaporating faster is new to me.

ThePro > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:44

Shoot, I got a pic at 2.30, but that's about as low as it got. (But it was mid-grade fuel)

MojoMotors.com > special_k_side
11/24/2014 at 15:44

Fair enough. Contact me at sjackson [at] mojomotors.com and the gear is yours. The sub $2.00/gallon offer still stands for those of you in the USofA.

gallahad > CrymeLord
11/24/2014 at 15:46

Not an expert, but the point of going to a less-volatile formula during warmer months is because warmth makes things more volatile. To some degree the engine needs that volatility, which would be lacking in a warm-season formula during the cold-season, and the result of an engine not running optimally is less efficient combustion and more emissions.

MojoMotors.com > ThePro
11/24/2014 at 15:47

2.30 is not too shabby. Whereabouts?

AmericanMagpie > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:51

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

Well it sure as shit isn't Obama, cuz he's just the worst.

special_k_side > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:51

It's all good buddy. I knew what you were looking for (Gallons) but I could not resist! :)

Jeff Tripp > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:52

Yeah, leave it to the federal government to screw it up. I guess it's "ReFormulated Gasoline [Program]?" The world may never know.

ThePro > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:54

Somewhere close to Roanoke, VA, I don't really remember.

MojoMotors.com > special_k_side
11/24/2014 at 15:59

Thanks for letting it slide. We'll be more careful next time.

Kinja'd!!!

the dude > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 15:59

Mojo,

You are an idiot and I have too little time to explain it all to you!!

Yours very truly,

Condescending engineer.

MojoMotors.com > the dude
11/24/2014 at 16:03

The real dude is much nicer.

Kinja'd!!!

the dude > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 16:07

Yeah , well , you know, that's just , like , your opinion, man.

I still have some moves.

Torque11Effect > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 16:07

I don't know about you guys, but my car runs better, and has more pep running on winter grade in cold temps. Better than in the summer on regular gas. Mainly because colder temps equals more oxygen, which equals more gas, which equals more power. That is why you see a drop in gas mileage. I honestly don't think it has anything to do with the butane.

MojoMotors.com > Torque11Effect
11/24/2014 at 16:09

We've heard that from several Jalops today. Good to know there are other things that are good about winter driving besides doing donuts!

Kinja'd!!!

F50F60 > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 16:11

I am guess as low as 2.50 in my area, OC CA. But I don't think I will 1.99 in my area. If it does, then I will demand a V12 gas engine in My F150 luminum...

Carfan77 > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 16:14

"Winter-grade gasoline contains higher levels of butane (which is less-expensive, contributing to the lower price) which lowers the Reid Vapor Pressure, or RVP."

CORRECTION: Higher levels of butane leads to higher vapor pressure levels thereby allowing it to evaporate more easily at lower temperatures.

MojoMotors.com > F50F60
11/24/2014 at 16:15

I'm sure you will be pleased with your new F150. 22 mpg combined in the 282-hp 2.7-liter EcoBoost V-6 isn't half bad, assuming that is what you went for.

Torque11Effect > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 16:20

Also since it is cold it take engines longer to warm up, so they are not as efficient and engine are stuck in the warmup phase dumping loads of fuel to warm up the engine for longer. Also keep your gas tanks topped up, less empty space in your tank, the less water that will condense and end up as water that will turn to ice in your tanks and lines.

MojoMotors.com > Carfan77
11/24/2014 at 16:22

Thanks for the correction, carfan!

Kinja'd!!!

F50F60 > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 16:30

I don't have one yet. But I think that is the best compromise. I'll get the crew cab 2wd b/c of the kids and still have a 5 foot+ bed for light truck usage.

David E. Davis > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 16:32

I win.

Kinja'd!!!

NavyNole > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 16:32

Down to $2.39 here in Gulfport, MS, so it might not be too long!

WarrenMFalcone > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis
11/24/2014 at 16:38

Start working at home with Google! It's by-far the best job I've had. Last Wednesday I got a brand new BMW since getting a check for $6474 this - 4 weeks past. I began this 8-months ago and immediately was bringing home at least $77 per hour. I work through this link, go? to tech tab for work detail

>>>>>>>>> http://www.WorkRipple.com

f.IV > thebigbossyboss
11/24/2014 at 16:39

on point.

DiHydro > Snidely Whiplash
11/24/2014 at 16:39

Interesting, but in our company, the engineers don't set the price or market the product. Is it different with oil? Is Mojo factually incorrect? If only someone with knowledge of the system would come help us unknowing, unwashed, unknowns!

MojoMotors.com > David E. Davis
11/24/2014 at 16:46

Oh geez, you do win. When/where is that picture from?

zakany001 > Jeff Tripp
11/24/2014 at 16:54

ReFormulated Gasoline program

David E. Davis > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 16:55

I found it on a DFW Fuel price website. About 2008 the site says.

MojoMotors.com > NavyNole
11/24/2014 at 17:01

Not bad!

MojoMotors.com > David E. Davis
11/24/2014 at 17:06

Nice, thanks for letting us know. sjackson [at] mojomotors.com if you want a shirt. Just need address and size.

RazorGP > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 17:26

Now to get the government to stop the retarded corn-ethanol blend in our fuel supply.

ex.saint > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 17:30

This is the first I've heard of someone recommending to not fill the tank if they won't be driving the vehicle for some time. Doesn't a not-full tank create a breeding ground for condensation and possibly rust?

Keith > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 17:36

I remember the prices going up in the winter in NY.

Kinja'd!!!

TwiceAroundTheClock > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 17:43

Interesting piece, Mojo. I'm curious to know if there's any similar seasonal fluctuation in diesel prices, as fuel/transportation costs can have a big impact on the pricing of goods that require OTR trucking to get them to their point of sale.

Spark > Dwhite - Powered by Caffeine, Daft Punk, and Corgis
11/24/2014 at 17:44

The only nationally Islamic country in NATO is buying oil from ISIS? Strange...

MojoMotors.com > TwiceAroundTheClock
11/24/2014 at 17:51

Good question, TwiceAround. That might be another good topic for us. We've heard that diesel prices can go up relative to unleaded during brutally cold winters due to the fact that heating oil is closely related to diesel fuel. When demand goes up for heating oil, the price of diesel can skyrocket as a consequence. That's what happened last winter according to some analysts.

Bug Eyed > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 18:03

Something.. Something.. Ethanol = bad.

plainnottoasted > MojoMotors.com
11/24/2014 at 18:16

Oil companies have been warned not to schedule their refinery fires for the winter, in case weather like we're currently experiencing causes unpredictable and unmanageable ripples to propagate throughout the economy, with potentially deadly consequences.

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > Snidely Whiplash
11/24/2014 at 18:37

Too little time... but still enough time to read the article and give a completely useless reply.

Nibbles > Jeff Tripp
11/24/2014 at 18:43

RGP sounds too close to RG3 and the NFL was threatening to sue.